Velocity Achieved in U.S. as Growth for Two Years Seen in Poll, By David J. Lynch – 2013-05-17T00:00:00Z
Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg
The Manhattan skyline is seen from the One World Trade Center observation deck in New York. Since the recession’s end in June 2009, the economy has expanded at an annual rate of 2 percent. After slowing this quarter, it’s expected to accelerate to a 2.9 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2014.
The U.S. economy will continue to recover until at least 2015 without tumbling into a recession, achieving the sustained growth that has eluded it since the last slump ended four years ago, according to a Bloomberg poll.
May 16 (Bloomberg) — Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc, talks about the outlook for U.S. growth, Federal Reserve policy and unemployment. Maki speaks with Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.” Timothy Coleman, head of restructuring and reorganization at Blackstone Group LP, also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg)
May 16 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren speaks at a conference in Milan about the risks of consistently undershooting on the inflation target in the U.S. and the progress of the economic recovery. (Source: Bloomberg)
May 17 (Bloomberg) — Robert Aspin, a Singapore-based investment strategist at Standard Chartered Bank, talks about global stocks and bonds. Aspin also discusses Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policies. He speaks with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)
May 16 (Bloomberg) — Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about the outlook for bond and stock markets and investment strategy. Gross, speaking with Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers,” also discusses Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policies. (Source: Bloomberg)
Attachment: Poll Results
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Graphic: Bloomberg Global Poll Results
With the economy creating an average of 208,000 jobs a month since November, 69 percent of those surveyed call the recovery “sustainable” while 27 percent anticipate a new recession within two years, according to the global poll of investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers.
“I expect growth to accelerate,” says respondent Brandon Fitzpatrick, 35, a portfolio manager for D.B. Fitzpatrick in Boise, Idaho. “Consumers’ balance sheets are improving, and consumption is set to pick up.”
The prospect of increasing energy independence, a rise in home values after years of decline and a pause in the partisan budgetary battles in Washington are driving investor sentiment.
Real estate, the epicenter of the 2008 financial crisis, is a big part of the optimism. Even after yesterday’s reported drop in April’s housing starts, homebuilders began work on 853,000 new homes, up 78 percent from the April 2009 low. After watching the housing crash erase more than $7 trillion worth of wealth, homeowners have recovered about $2 trillion in real estate holdings, according to Federal Reserve data.
In the poll, 71 percent of Bloomberg customers say the recent home-price increase in major U.S. markets is evidence of a genuine recovery in values; 21 percent say it’s a sign that a new bubble is inflating.
“Anyone who isn’t long real estate housing is a moron,” says Stan Jonas, 64, managing partner of Axiom Management Partners in New York, speaking before the April figures were released.
If the poll consensus is correct, the expansion will eventually exceed the 58-month length of the average postwar recovery, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research